US stocks struggled on Thursday as concerns over the economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy continued to weigh on sentiment. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped, dragged down by losses in major technology stocks like Apple and Alphabet, while the Dow remained little changed. Investors remained cautious following the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady and its forecast for two rate cuts in 2025, as uncertainty surrounding tariffs and slowing growth kept markets under pressure. Accenture shares plunged after the company revealed it had lost key federal contracts due to tighter government spending under the Trump administration. With the market recovering from a month-long decline, traders are bracing for volatility as they assess the impact of trade policy shifts.

Key Takeaways:

  • S&P 500 Closes Lower as Recovery Efforts Stall: The S&P 500 slipped 0.22% to 5,662.89 on Thursday, as Wall Street struggled to regain momentum following a sharp monthlong downturn. Despite a brief rebound on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, the index remains nearly 8% off its record high set in February, with losses exceeding 7% over the past month. 
  • Dow Jones Ends Flat as Market Caution Persists: The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched down 11.31 points, or 0.03%, to close at 41,953.32, struggling to gain traction as investors assessed the economic impact of the Fed’s latest projections. While some blue-chip stocks provided stability, overall market caution kept the index from staging a meaningful recovery. 
  • Nasdaq Falls as Apple and Alphabet Drag Tech Stocks Lower: The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.33% to 17,691.63, led by declines in major technology stocks. Apple and Alphabet were among the notable losers, as weakness in the sector weighed on market sentiment. 
  • European Markets Decline After Flurry of Central Bank Decisions: European equities finished lower on Thursday as investors reacted to a series of monetary policy announcements. The Stoxx 600 index dropped 0.43%, ending a four-day winning streak. Germany’s DAX fell 289 points, or 1.24%, while France’s CAC 40 declined 77 points, or 0.95%. Italy’s FTSE MIB suffered the largest decline, losing 524 points, or 1.32%. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 showed relative resilience, edging down just 4.67 points, or 0.05%, to 8,701.99. The Bank of England left its key interest rate at 4.5%, warning that global trade uncertainty stemming from US tariffs could impact the economy. 
  • Asia-Pacific Markets Trade Mixed as China Holds Interest Rates Steady: Asian markets saw mixed performances on Thursday as China’s central bank maintained its key lending rates. The People’s Bank of China kept the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, where they have remained since an October rate cut. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 2.16%, while the CSI 300 fell 0.88% to close at 3,974.99. Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics revealed that the youth unemployment rate for 16-to-24-year-olds, excluding students, climbed to 16.9% in February, up from 16.1% in January. The nationwide jobless rate reached 5.4%, the highest level in two years. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.32% to 2,637.1, while the Kosdaq declined 1.79% to 725.15. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 outperformed, rising 1.16% to 7,918.9. Japan’s markets were closed for a holiday.
  • Treasury Yields Fall as Investors Assess Economic Outlook: US Treasury yields declined on Thursday, with investors weighing the Federal Reserve’s policy stance and broader economic conditions. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 2 basis points to 4.235%, while the 2-year Treasury yield slipped over 2 basis points to 3.957%. 
  • Oil Prices Surge as US Imposes New Iran-Related Sanctions: Crude oil prices rose on Thursday after the US issued new Iran-related sanctions, targeting Chinese refiners and vessels that transport Iranian crude. Brent crude jumped $1.22, or 1.72%, to close at $72 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April delivery gained $1.10 to settle at $68.26. 

FX Today:

  • EUR/USD Retreats After Failing to Break Above 1.0900: The euro struggled against the dollar on Thursday, with EUR/USD declining 0.44% to close at 1.0852 after hitting an intraday high of 1.0916. The pair once again faced strong resistance near the 1.0900 level, a barrier that previously triggered a selloff in November 2024. Despite the setback, the euro remains above key moving averages, with the 50-day SMA at 1.0515, the 100-day SMA at 1.0522, and the 200-day SMA at 1.0728. If the pair holds above 1.0850, another attempt to test 1.0900 is likely. However, should it slip below this threshold, a move toward 1.0800 could be on the horizon, with stronger support resting at the 200-day SMA near 1.0728.
  • GBP/USD Pulls Back as 1.3000 Resistance Holds: The British pound struggled to maintain its momentum, sliding 0.30% to settle at 1.2964. After briefly touching a session high of 1.3014, the pair reversed as sellers stepped in at the psychological 1.3000 level. GBP/USD remains in a longer-term uptrend, trading above its 50-day SMA at 1.2581, the 100-day SMA at 1.2624, and the 200-day SMA at 1.2799. The last time the pair was at these levels was in September 2024, when a similar rejection at 1.3000 led to a deeper correction. If support at 1.2950 holds, another breakout attempt could be in store. However, failure to sustain these levels could see GBP/USD drop toward 1.2900, with the 200-day SMA at 1.2800 acting as a key support level.
  • USD/CHF Rallies Toward 0.8820 as Swiss Franc Weakens: The US dollar staged a recovery against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF rising 0.53% to close at 0.8819. The pair reached a high of 0.8841 before settling slightly lower, highlighting resistance at this level. The latest policy decision from the Swiss National Bank, which surprised markets with a 25 basis point rate cut to 0.25%, pressured the franc and fuelled demand for the dollar. USD/CHF remains below key moving averages, with the 50-day SMA at 0.8999, the 100-day SMA at 0.8936, and the 200-day SMA at 0.8810, keeping the broader outlook neutral to slightly bearish. If the pair holds above 0.8800, another attempt to test 0.8850 is likely. Conversely, a drop below 0.8780 could push the pair toward 0.8720, with stronger support near 0.8650.
  • AUD/USD Extends Losses as Economic Concerns Mount: The Australian dollar came under renewed selling pressure, with AUD/USD falling 0.82% to close at 0.6304. The pair attempted to push higher early in the session, reaching 0.6363, but failed to maintain momentum, slipping below the key 0.6350 level. The decline comes as weak Australian labour market data added to concerns about the country’s economic outlook, while the US dollar remained firm following the Federal Reserve’s commitment to keeping interest rates restrictive. AUD/USD remains in a bearish trend, with the 50-day SMA at 0.6288, the 100-day SMA at 0.6346, and the 200-day SMA at 0.6520. The last time the pair was at this level was in early March, before rebounding toward 0.6400. If AUD/USD holds above 0.6300, a short-term bounce could take it back toward 0.6350. However, a decisive break below 0.6300 could accelerate losses toward 0.6250, with stronger support near 0.6200. A break below 0.6200 would confirm renewed selling pressure.
  • Gold Retreats After Testing Resistance at 3,057: Gold prices edged lower on Thursday, closing at 3,045, down 0.12%, as the metal failed to hold gains above 3,057. After briefly hitting an intraday high of 3,057, gold faced resistance, leading to a mild pullback. Despite the decline, the metal remains in a strong uptrend, trading well above key moving averages, including the 50-day SMA at 2,860, the 100-day SMA at 2,753, and the 200-day SMA at 2,629. The last time gold tested this region was in the previous session when it faced similar selling pressure near 3,052. If prices hold above 3,040, another attempt at breaking through 3,060 is likely. However, failure to sustain this level could trigger a correction toward 3,020, with stronger support at 2,980. 

Market Movers:

  • Accenture Plunges on Narrowed Margin Forecast: Accenture (ACN) led losses in the S&P 500, closing down more than 7% after the company tightened its full-year operating margin outlook to 15.6%-15.7%, narrowing from the previous estimate of 15.6%-15.8%. 
  • Gartner Drops as Defence Contracts Face Cuts: Gartner (IT) slid more than 6% after US Secretary of Defence Hegseth signed a memo directing the termination of over $580 million in Department of Defence contracts and grants, including some linked to Gartner. 
  • Rivian Slumps After Analyst Downgrade: Rivian Automotive (RIVN) lost more than 4% after Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight. The downgrade reflected concerns over valuation and execution risks, pressuring shares of the electric vehicle manufacturer.
  • ProAssurance Soars Over 48% on Acquisition News: ProAssurance (PRA) surged more than 48% after Doctors Co. announced it would acquire the company for approximately $1.3 billion, or $25 per share. The deal sparked a sharp rally as investors welcomed the buyout premium.
  • Darden Restaurants Rises Over 5% on Strong Sales Forecast: Darden Restaurants (DRI) jumped more than 5%, leading gainers in the S&P 500, after the company projected full-year comparable sales growth of 1.50%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 1.29%. 

As Thursday’s trading session came to a close, US equities struggled to regain footing, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting losses while the Dow hovered near the flatline. Investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s cautious outlook, which signalled two rate cuts in 2025 but also highlighted inflationary pressures and economic uncertainties tied to trade policy. Meanwhile, European markets declined after multiple central banks maintained their policy stances, and Asian markets delivered mixed performances as China held rates steady. Treasury yields edged lower as traders reassessed the Fed’s path for rate cuts, while oil prices climbed on fresh Iran-related sanctions. With uncertainty still looming over trade policy and economic growth, markets remain on edge, awaiting further signals from policymakers in the weeks ahead.