Wall Street roared back on Friday to end one of the most volatile weeks in recent memory, with the Dow jumping more than 600 points amid renewed hopes for easing US-China trade tensions. Investors responded positively to comments from the White House suggesting President Trump is “optimistic” about striking a deal with Beijing. Despite severe swings earlier in the week, all three major indexes logged strong weekly gains. However, uncertainty remains high as tit-for-tat tariffs escalate, inflation expectations jump, and consumer confidence plummets.

Key Takeaways:

  • Dow Surges Over 600 Points to End Chaotic Week: The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 619.05 points, or 1.56%, closing at 40,212.71. The index recovered sharply from Thursday’s 1,000-point drop, ending the week up nearly 5% despite turbulent trading driven by tariff fears and shifting risk sentiment.
  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq Post Best Week Since 2023: The S&P 500 climbed 1.81% to 5,363.36, while the Nasdaq rose 2.06% to 16,724.46. Wednesday’s historic rally, driven by a temporary tariff pause, helped the S&P notch a 5.7% weekly gain—its best since November 2023. The Nasdaq surged 7.3%, its strongest weekly performance since November 2022.
  • European Markets End Lower Despite UK Growth Surprise: European equities closed lower Friday, wrapping up a volatile week dominated by tariff escalation. The standout data came from the UK, where February GDP rose 0.5% month-on-month, far exceeding the 0.1% estimate. The surprise was driven by a 0.3% jump in services output and a sharp 2.2% rise in manufacturing production, the strongest in 20 months. Despite the upbeat figures, the FTSE 100 declined 1.13% for the week to 7,964.18 as global trade fears weighed on sentiment. The Stoxx 600 slipped 0.1%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.92%, France’s CAC 40 fell 0.3%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB dropped 0.73%.
  • Asian Markets Slide as China Retaliates with Tariff Hike: Asian equities ended the week mixed but skewed to the downside as trade tensions escalated. Japan’s Nikkei 225 tumbled 2.96%, while South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.5% and Australia’s ASX 200 slid 0.82%. China’s CSI 300 rose 0.41%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.13%. Market sentiment remained fragile after China raised tariffs on US goods from 84% to 125%, retaliating against the US’s newly confirmed 145% universal duty. The Chinese finance ministry denounced the move as irrational and vowed economic pushback.
  • Oil Prices Jump on Threat of Iran Export Ban: Crude oil prices rose sharply after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright signalled a possible end to Iranian oil exports as part of a broader nuclear strategy. Brent settled at $64.76, up $1.43 or 2.26%, while WTI climbed to $61.50, gaining 2.38%. Supply fears over Iran and broader geopolitical tensions outweighed concerns about declining demand from slowing global growth due to tariff effects.
  • Treasury Yields Spike as Foreign Sellers Exit US Bonds: The 10-year Treasury yield rose 9 basis points to 4.486%, ending a week that saw yields surge more than 50 bps—the steepest move in years. The 2-year yield climbed to 3.97%. Analysts cited potential selling by China and Japan amid rising trade friction, reversing the traditional safe-haven role of US debt during volatility.
  • US Wholesale Prices Fall Unexpectedly in March: Producer prices dropped 0.4% in March, defying consensus expectations for a rise. Core PPI also edged lower, signalling softer inflation pressures. Goods prices plunged 0.9%, while services fell 0.2%. The data comes as the US braces for tariff-driven cost increases in future months.
  • Consumer Sentiment Falls Sharply on Inflation Fears: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.8 in April, its lowest since 1981. One-year inflation expectations surged to 6.7%, while five-year expectations climbed to 4.4%. The data reflects widespread anxiety over rising prices and economic uncertainty, especially amid heightened trade tension.

FX Today:

  • EUR/USD Surges to 10-Month High on Breakout Momentum: EUR/USD rallied 1.25% on Thursday to close at 1.1338, marking its highest level since June 2024. The pair has gained nearly 450 pips since the early March low and now trades well above all major moving averages. The 50-day SMA at 1.0689 has crossed above the 100-day SMA at 1.0556, forming a bullish crossover, with both now sloping upward. Price cleanly broke above resistance at 1.1100, triggering a rally toward the 1.1300–1.1350 zone. The next upside target lies at 1.1450, while 1.1500 remains a key psychological magnet. On the downside, 1.1200 now acts as initial support, followed by 1.1100. Momentum indicators remain strong, suggesting further upside unless a macro shift occurs.
  • GBP/USD Extends Rally to Two-Month High as UK Data Surprises: GBP/USD closed at 1.3078, rising 0.83% and recording its highest finish since February. The move followed unexpectedly strong UK GDP data (+0.5% m/m in February), along with robust manufacturing output (+2.2%), both of which boosted investor sentiment. Price has climbed above the 50-day SMA at 1.2771, the 100-day SMA at 1.2641, and the 200-day SMA at 1.2818, all of which are now turning higher. The rally cleared resistance at 1.3000, with 1.3150 and 1.3200 identified as next upside targets. On the downside, 1.2950–1.2900 provides a key demand zone. The bullish structure remains intact as long as price stays above the rising cluster of SMAs.
  • AUD/USD Rallies for Fifth Day, Eyes Break above Key Resistance: AUD/USD gained 1.13% to settle at 0.6294, posting a fifth consecutive daily advance. The pair has rebounded over 350 pips from its April low near 0.5940 and is now challenging a major resistance zone between 0.6300 and 0.6350. Price has climbed above both the 50-day SMA (0.6279) and 100-day SMA (0.6294), though it remains below the 200-day SMA at 0.6486. A decisive daily close above 0.6350 could open the path toward 0.6480–0.6500. Immediate support is seen at 0.6220, followed by a key floor around 0.6150. The pair’s structure suggests a recovery is underway, but long-term trend reversal hinges on reclaiming the 200-day level.
  • USD/CHF Sinks to Fresh Multi-Month Low as Bear Trend Deepens: USD/CHF closed at 0.8158, down 0.94%, hitting its lowest level since mid-2023. The pair is now firmly entrenched in a downtrend, trading well below all major SMAs — the 50-day (0.8857), 100-day (0.8921), and 200-day (0.8788) — each sloping lower. After repeated rejections near 0.8550 and 0.8700 in March, sellers have taken control, driving successive lower highs and lows. The next major support lies at the psychologically important 0.8000 zone, where price previously found buyers in May–June 2023. Resistance now stands at 0.8400, then 0.8550. 
  • Gold Breaks Record as Demand for Safe Havens Surges: Gold surged 1.70% to close at $3,229, notching a new all-time high as inflation uncertainty and geopolitical risks drove haven demand. This marks the seventh gain in eight sessions, with the rally extending well beyond its previous high near $3,175. The 50-day SMA is climbing steeply at $2,969, while the 100-day and 200-day sit at $2,820 and $2,688 respectively. Price remains in a near-parabolic ascent, with minimal intraday pullbacks. If momentum persists, targets at $3,250 and $3,300 are in play. Support now lies at $3,175, followed by $3,100. As long as price holds above the breakout level, dips are likely to be bought aggressively.

Market Movers:

  • Frontier Group Drops on Weaker Demand: Shares of Frontier Airlines fell 5.6% after the company slashed its first-quarter revenue expectations and pulled its full-year forecast. Management pointed to softening travel demand and mounting macroeconomic headwinds, disappointing investors already concerned about profitability in a high-cost environment.
  • JPMorgan Rallies after Strong Revenue Beat and CEO Warning: JPMorgan rose 4% following first-quarter revenue of $46.01 billion, well ahead of the $44.11 billion consensus estimate. Net income also exceeded forecasts. Despite the beat, CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that the US economy faces “considerable turbulence” in the months ahead.
  • BlackRock Gains Following Earnings Beat and Steady Inflows: The asset manager rose 2.3% after posting adjusted EPS of $11.30 versus the $10.14 expected. Despite broader market volatility, the firm reported solid inflows. CEO Larry Fink noted that the US may already be in a recession, but the results signalled operational resilience.
  • Gold Miners Surge on Record Metal Prices and UBS Upgrade: Barrick Gold and Newmont Corp. jumped 7% and 7.9%, respectively, tracking gold’s surge to a new all-time high. UBS upgraded Newmont to “buy” from “neutral,” citing improving fundamentals and the potential for earnings outperformance if prices remain elevated.
  • Apple Rebounds with Tech Sector as Tariff Risks Repriced: Apple shares climbed 4% Friday, bringing weekly gains to 5.2% after a rocky start to April. Despite concerns over tariffs on China-made iPhones, investors appeared to look through short-term risk.
  • MicroStrategy Pops on Crypto Momentum and Risk Rebound: The stock surged 10.2%, mirroring gains in Bitcoin during Friday’s session. As a large holder of BTC, MicroStrategy often trades as a proxy for crypto sentiment. The rally was further fuelled by a broader rebound in risk assets and signs of renewed institutional buying.

Markets ended a chaotic week on a strong rebound, but the path ahead remains fraught with uncertainty. While hopes of a US-China trade resolution lifted equities Friday, the sharp escalation in retaliatory tariffs and wild swings in Treasury yields underscore how fragile sentiment remains. Softer wholesale inflation offered temporary relief, but deteriorating consumer confidence and signs of foreign divestment from US debt point to deeper concerns. Investors will now shift focus to corporate earnings season, incoming inflation prints, and any fresh developments in global trade diplomacy. With volatility still elevated, coming week could prove just as pivotal as the last.