Markets seesawed Thursday as investors absorbed escalating tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve alongside volatile corporate earnings. The Dow plunged over 500 points, dragged lower by a collapse in UnitedHealth, while the S&P 500 managed a small gain and the Nasdaq slipped modestly. Pressure mounted after President Trump lashed out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling for his removal and demanding immediate rate cuts in response to the ECB’s latest move. Powell, in remarks a day earlier, warned that new tariffs could drive inflation higher and complicate the Fed’s path forward. Although late-session comments from Trump about progress on trade deals briefly lifted sentiment, markets closed the holiday-shortened week with losses as uncertainty deepened around trade, rates, and the Fed’s credibility.

Key Takeaways:

  • Dow Extends Losing Streak With 527-Point Drop: The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 527.16 points, or 1.33%, to close at 39,142.23, marking its third straight loss. UnitedHealth’s 22% plunge following weak earnings weighed heavily on the index, which has now declined over 7% since early April’s tariff announcement.
  • S&P 500 Inches Higher Despite Earnings Headwinds: The S&P 500 added 0.13% to finish at 5,282.70, recovering from earlier losses in a choppy session. Positive momentum from Eli Lilly and late-day optimism on trade talks helped the index end slightly in the green, though it fell 1.5% for the week.
  • Nasdaq Slips as Nvidia Continues to Slide: The Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.13% to 16,286.45, closing lower for a third straight day. Nvidia dropped nearly 3%, adding to a 7% loss in the previous session, after revealing a $5.5 billion charge tied to export restrictions to China.
  • Europe Ends Mixed After ECB Cuts Rates: European equities pared early losses after the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing its deposit facility rate to 2.25%. The move, which was widely expected, marks the first cut since rates peaked in mid-2023. The Stoxx 600 closed just 0.1% lower, while individual country indices showed mixed performance. Germany’s DAX slipped 0.49%, France’s CAC 40 fell 0.60%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB trimmed earlier losses to close 0.5% lower. The UK’s FTSE 100 outperformed with a weekly gain of nearly 4%, closing at a record high. Siemens Energy surged 10% on upgraded guidance, while Hermès dropped 3.2% after a soft revenue print. 
  • Asia Rallies on Dovish Central Banks and Fiscal Optimism: Asia-Pacific markets advanced broadly, defying Wall Street’s weakness as regional investors focused on domestic stimulus and central bank support. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.35%, supported by a rebound in tech and solid earnings sentiment. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.94% after the central bank held rates steady at 2.75%, while the Kosdaq outperformed with a 1.81% gain. In China, the CSI 300 ended flat as traders remained cautious ahead of data releases, though the Hang Seng Index rose 1.61% on renewed risk appetite. India’s Sensex and Nifty 50 surged over 1.6% each, recovering from early losses, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.78%. 
  • Oil Surges Over 3% on New Iran Sanctions: Crude prices rallied sharply after the US imposed sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports. Brent settled at $67.96, up 3.2%, while WTI gained 3.54% to close at $64.68. The move capped a weekly gain of around 5% for both benchmarks, reversing a two-week losing streak. Analysts cited increased geopolitical tension and shrinking supply expectations as key drivers. Despite recent downward revisions in demand forecasts by major agencies, the threat of tighter supply helped fuel the rebound.
  • Yields Rise After Powell Flags Tariff Risks: The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.333%, while the 2-year yield edged up to 3.8%. Investors reacted to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s warning that rising tariffs could lift inflation and complicate the central bank’s balancing act. Markets remained jittery over how aggressive the Fed may need to be if trade-related price pressures mount, adding to the uncertainty surrounding rate policy in the second half of 2025.
  • US Jobless Claims Fall, Labour Market Stays Firm: Weekly initial jobless claims dropped by 9,000 to 215,000, beating forecasts and signalling continued labour market stability. Despite broader economic uncertainty, there’s still little evidence of widespread layoffs or hiring freezes. Analysts note that while business sentiment has dimmed amid tariff headlines, employment remains resilient for now, with no signs that mass federal layoffs are hitting jobless rolls yet.

FX Today:

  • EUR/USD Pauses Near Resistance After Vertical Surge: EUR/USD closed slightly lower at 1.1374, down 0.21% after rallying sharply in recent sessions. The pair touched a high of 1.1490 intraday before encountering resistance near the psychologically significant 1.1500 level. EUR/USD continues to trade comfortably above its 50-day SMA at 1.0767, the 100-day at 1.0591, and the 200-day at 1.0753, all now sloping upward. A clean break above 1.1500 could open the path toward 1.1700, while support is seen around 1.1250 and stronger at 1.1100.
  • GBP/USD Edges Higher as Bullish Breakout Holds: GBP/USD closed at 1.3266, gaining 0.19% as the pair maintained its recent bullish trajectory. The price action remains constructive, with GBP/USD trading well above its key moving averages, the 50-day SMA at 1.2832, the 100-day at 1.2667, and the 200-day at 1.2827, all of which are starting to slope upward. The recent break above 1.3000 has turned that level into a strong support zone, with buyers stepping in on pullbacks. Resistance is now forming near 1.3300, last seen in August 2024. A push above this level could open the door to a move toward 1.3500. If bulls fail to break through, price may consolidate between 1.3000 and 1.3300 in the near term.
  • USD/JPY Holds Above 142.00 But Remains Trapped in Downtrend: USD/JPY closed at 142.39, gaining 0.39% on the day after bouncing from a session low of 141.61. Despite the intraday recovery and the close above the 142.00 handle, the pair remains entrenched in a broader downtrend that has persisted since late March. Price continues to trade well below its key moving averages, the 50-day at 148.80, 100-day at 151.79, and 200-day at 150.58, all of which are sloping downward and reinforcing the bearish bias. Resistance stands near 144.00, a prior support-turned-ceiling, while stronger rejection is expected near the declining 50-day SMA. On the downside, 142.00 now serves as immediate support, followed by the recent swing low just below 141.00. 
  • USD/CHF Consolidates Below Resistance as Bears Remain in Control: USD/CHF closed at 0.8188 with a 0.70% gain, but the broader trend remains decisively bearish. The pair continues to trade near multi-month lows and well below its major moving averages, the 50-day SMA at 0.8786, the 100-day at 0.8892, and the 200-day at 0.8772, all trending lower. Immediate resistance is seen at 0.8250, with stronger barriers near 0.8400, a key breakdown zone from early April. On the downside, USD/CHF faces weak support near 0.8100 and psychological backing at 0.8000. Unless price recovers above its moving average cluster, the risk of another leg down persists.
  • Gold Retreats Slightly After Hitting Fresh Record Highs: Gold closed at 3,320, down 0.60% on the day after surging to a new all-time high of 3,357 earlier in the session. The pullback reflects profit-taking after the metal’s sharp rally, though gold remains in a well-defined uptrend. The structure of higher highs and higher lows is intact, with price holding above its 50-day SMA at 3,004, the 100-day at 2,845, and the 200-day at 2,706, all of which are rising. While resistance now forms in the 3,350–3,360 zone, the dip has found support near the 3,230 level. A decisive break above 3,360 could lead to new upside targets, while a deeper pullback may find stronger demand around the 3,000 zone, where the support remains firm.

Market Movers:

  • UnitedHealth Crashes on Earnings Miss and Guidance Cut: Shares of UnitedHealth plummeted 22.4% after the insurer reported weaker-than-expected Q1 results. The company posted adjusted earnings of $7.20 per share on revenue of $109.58 billion, missing estimates of $7.29 and $111.60 billion, respectively. 
  • Eli Lilly Soars on Positive Obesity Pill Trial Results: Eli Lilly jumped 14.3% after announcing promising late-stage trial results for its daily weight-loss pill, orforglipron. The experimental drug met key efficacy and safety targets, with weight loss data and side effect rates largely aligning with analyst expectations.
  • Nvidia Slides Further as China Export Costs Mount: Nvidia shares dropped nearly 3%, adding to a 7% decline from the prior session. The ongoing selloff follows the company’s disclosure of a $5.5 billion charge tied to export restrictions on its H20 GPUs to China and other destinations.
  • Global Payments Drops on Worldpay Acquisition Announcement: Global Payments sank 17.4% after announcing a $24.25 billion deal to acquire Worldpay from Fidelity National Information Services and a private equity firm.
  • Alcoa Drops After Missing on Revenue: Alcoa shares fell nearly 7% after the aluminium giant posted Q1 revenue of $3.37 billion, below consensus forecasts of $3.53 billion. Despite better-than-expected earnings, concerns over weakening demand weighed on the stock.

Thursday’s session underscored the market’s fragile footing as investors juggled a complex mix of earnings shocks, central bank shifts, and renewed trade anxiety. While the S&P 500 managed to close in positive territory, steep losses in heavyweight names like UnitedHealth and Nvidia dragged the Dow sharply lower, capping a three-day losing streak. Global developments added to the volatility, with the ECB cutting rates and new US sanctions pushing oil prices higher. Despite a brief lift from optimistic trade remarks, sentiment remains cautious heading into the holiday weekend. With markets closed Friday for Good Friday, attention now turns to upcoming earnings reports, ongoing tariff negotiations, and the Fed’s next steps amid lingering inflation risks.