Wall Street extended its rebound Thursday, as tech stocks drove major indexes higher for a third straight session. Investors welcomed upbeat corporate results and signs that the US may be softening its trade stance, even as China denied any active talks. Semiconductor and software names surged, helping lift overall sentiment despite caution from some market participants. Meanwhile, yields slipped and durable goods orders showed strength, adding to the risk-on tone. Traders also monitored developments on South Korea trade talks, which officials suggested could yield a breakthrough soon.

Key Takeaways:

  • Dow Breaks 40,000 Despite IBM Drop: The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 486.83 points, or 1.23%, to close at 40,093.40, its first finish above the key threshold since April 15. A 6.6% decline in IBM, following cautious earnings guidance, held back broader gains but failed to derail the index’s upward momentum.
  • S&P 500 Surges Over 2% on Tech Momentum: The S&P 500 rose 2.03% to 5,484.77 as tech stocks drove the rally. Strong results from ServiceNow, Hasbro, and chipmakers helped offset worries over tariffs and trade policy, fuelling the index’s third straight day of gains.
  • Nasdaq Jumps Nearly 2.75% as Big Tech Rallies: The Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.74% to close at 17,166.04, powered by sharp gains in major tech names. Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft each rose over 3%, while Alphabet and Apple also posted solid gains.
  • European Markets Rise As FTSE 100 Notches Ninth Gain: The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.38% on Thursday, with most sectors trading in positive territory as investors monitored persistent trade uncertainty. Germany’s DAX climbed about 0.5% to close at 22,069, extending its third straight day of gains. France’s CAC 40 rebounded from early losses to finish 0.3% higher, while Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 0.96%. In the UK, the FTSE 100 added 0.05%, to 8,407.44 — marking its ninth consecutive winning session and the longest such streak since 2019. On the macro front, Germany’s IFO business climate index for April unexpectedly rose by 0.2 points to 86.9, the highest since July 2023 and well above forecasts for a decline to 85.2. However, eurozone new car registrations in March fell 0.2% year-over-year to 1.030 million units, extending their monthly losing streak to three.
  • Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed as Growth Outlook Dims: Asia-Pacific equities delivered a mixed performance on Thursday as investors weighed softer trade rhetoric from the US against a deteriorating regional growth backdrop. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.49%, extending its rebound, while the broader Topix index added 0.32%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 advanced 0.6%, also tracking Wall Street gains. In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.13% after preliminary Q1 GDP figures showed a surprise contraction of 0.1%, missing consensus expectations for a 0.1% expansion. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.29%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index ended flat at 3,784.36. The International Monetary Fund cut its 2025 Asia growth forecast to 3.9%, down from 4.6% previously.
  • Oil Prices Steady Amid Economic Crosscurrents: Brent crude settled up 0.2% at $66.22, while WTI rose 0.3% to $62.43. Oil held steady as traders weighed mixed macro signals, a potential OPEC+ supply hike, and geopolitical uncertainty. While broader risk appetite improved, lingering concerns over demand kept price action muted.
  • Treasury Yields Fall as Trade Talk Hopes Waver: Yields declined with the 10-year note falling to 4.307% and the 2-year to 3.789%, as traders responded to softer rhetoric from President Trump on China. However, China flatly denied any ongoing discussions and called for the removal of all unilateral tariffs, undercutting hopes for near-term progress.
  • Durable Goods Orders Jump as Housing Slumps Further: March durable goods orders surged 9.2%, well above forecasts, driven largely by a spike in aircraft orders. Despite this strength, broader business investment remained cautious. At the same time, existing home sales dropped 5.9% in March to the lowest level for the month since 2009. Prices climbed to a record $403,700, but the pace of gains continued to slow, highlighting affordability constraints.

FX Today:

  • EUR/USD Extends Recovery Above Key Averages: EUR/USD rose 0.66% to settle at 1.1388, continuing its broader uptrend after consolidating gains earlier in the week. The pair remains well supported above all major moving averages, with the 50-day at 1.0871, 100-day at 1.0634, and 200-day at 1.0767, all trending higher. Price action is forming higher highs and higher lows, and buyers re-entered as the pair held above 1.1300. Immediate resistance stands near 1.1500–1.1550, while support remains at 1.1200 and 1.1000. The breakout above the 1.1000 zone in March remains a key turning point. A close above 1.1550 would open the door to 1.1700 in coming weeks. The trend remains upward as long as price stays above the 50-day SMA.
  • GBP/USD Pushes Toward 1.34 as Bulls Stay in Control: GBP/USD climbed 0.65% to close at 1.3339, continuing its steady ascent after clearing 1.3000 earlier in the month. The pair is comfortably above all major SMAs, with the 50-day at 1.2919, 100-day at 1.2699, and 200-day at 1.2836, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Recent price action remains constructive, with buyers stepping in on dips and eyeing a potential breakout above 1.3430. A decisive move through that level would target the 1.3600 region. On the downside, key support now lies at 1.3200, followed by 1.3000. 
  • USD/JPY Resumes Slide as Bearish Structure Deepens: USD/JPY fell 0.50% to close at 142.68, reversing a recent rebound attempt and remaining stuck below key resistance. The pair is now firmly under the 50-day SMA at 147.76, the 100-day at 151.39, and the 200-day at 150.16, all trending lower. After testing the 143.40 area, price failed to hold gains and closed with a bearish candle that reinforces the dominant downtrend. Immediate support lies at 140.00, followed by 139.00, while upside resistance remains around 145.00–147.50.
  • AUD/USD Eyes Breakout as Price Holds Above Support: AUD/USD advanced 0.77% to close at 0.6407, pushing closer to key resistance near 0.6450. The pair is now trading above the 50-day SMA at 0.6297 and the 100-day SMA at 0.6282, showing renewed bullish momentum. However, the 200-day SMA at 0.6487 still acts as a major cap on further upside. The recent consolidation just beneath resistance suggests a breakout attempt may be brewing. If the pair can clear 0.6450–0.6487, the next upside target is 0.6600. Support is layered around 0.6350 and 0.6297, and as long as those levels hold, the short-term bias remains tilted to the upside.
  • Gold Rebounds After Finding Support at 50-Day SMA: Gold (XAU/USD) rose 1.69% to finish at 3,343.40, bouncing after testing the lower end of its recent consolidation range near 3,280. The recovery comes as price held above the rising 50-day SMA, now at 3,041.82. Despite falling over 200 points from its recent high above 3,500, the broader uptrend remains intact, with the 100-day and 200-day SMAs also pointing higher. The structure of higher highs and higher lows since February continues to hold. Resistance sits near the prior high at 3,500, while support is seen in the 3,150–3,200 zone. As long as the 3,280 area holds, gold’s bullish momentum is expected to persist in the short term.

Market Movers:

  • ServiceNow Soars on Strong Subscription Outlook: ServiceNow (NOW) surged more than 15% after beating Q1 subscription revenue expectations and issuing Q2 guidance ahead of estimates. 
  • Hasbro Pops After Revenue Smashes Expectations: Hasbro (HAS) jumped more than 14% after reporting Q1 net revenue of $887.1 million, far above consensus. The toy maker also reaffirmed its full-year guidance, boosting investor confidence.
  • Microchip Technology Leads Chip Surge: Microchip Technology (MCHP) rallied over 12% after better-than-expected results, helping lift the entire semiconductor group. ON Semiconductor (ON) gained more than 8% in sympathy.
  • Allegion Gains on Earnings Beat: Allegion (ALLE) rose more than 10% following strong Q1 results, including adjusted EPS of $1.86 versus consensus of $1.68. The company noted rising demand in commercial security.
  • Fiserv Tumbles on Slower Revenue Growth: Fiserv (FI) dropped more than 18%, the worst performer in the S&P 500, after Q1 organic revenue growth of 7% missed estimates. The weak top-line figure overshadowed profit results.
  • IBM Falls Despite Earnings Beat: IBM (IBM) dropped over 6% after cautioning that government spending cuts and macroeconomic conditions may weigh on future results, despite topping Q1 earnings estimates.
  • PepsiCo Declines on Outlook Cut: PepsiCo (PEP) lost more than 4% after missing Q1 EPS expectations by a penny and lowering its full-year organic revenue forecast to a low single-digit increase.
  • Alaska Air Plunges on Weak EPS Forecast: Alaska Air (ALK) declined more than 9% after forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.15–$1.65, far below the consensus of $2.41. 

Thursday’s rally was fuelled by strong tech earnings and a temporary reprieve in trade tension rhetoric, though the underlying tone remained cautious. China’s denial of any ongoing negotiations contrasts with more conciliatory remarks from US officials, creating mixed signals for markets. Durable goods data and resilient labour market readings helped shore up investor confidence, while a steady Treasury market added support. Despite the day’s strong gains, especially in megacap tech and chip stocks, sentiment may remain fragile as trade developments evolve. Attention now turns to potential progress with South Korea and upcoming data releases that could further shape expectations on growth and policy.