US stocks ended slightly higher on Friday, capping off a volatile week driven by trade tensions, economic uncertainty, and disappointing earnings from major companies. The S&P 500 broke a four-week losing streak with a modest gain, while the Nasdaq outperformed. Trading was especially choppy due to “quadruple witching”, (a quarterly event when stock options, index options, stock futures, and index futures all expire on the same day), often leading to heavier volume and price swings. President Donald Trump’s comments suggesting some “flexibility” on tariffs helped ease market nerves late in the day, but concerns over growth and business confidence kept investors cautious heading into the weekend. 

Key Takeaways:

  • S&P 500 Snaps Four-Week Losing Streak with Modest Gain: The S&P 500 inched up 0.08% on Friday to close at 5,667.56, ending a four-week losing streak fuelled by trade uncertainty, recession concerns, and megacap tech weakness. For the week, the index advanced 0.5%, though it remains nearly 8% below its record high. 
  • Nasdaq Rises as Tech Rebounds, Dow Also Gains: The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.52% to 17,784.05, supported by renewed interest in growth names. It recorded a 0.2% weekly increase. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 32.03 points, or 0.08%, to settle at 41,985.35, capping the week with a 1.2% gain. The move higher came despite notable declines in industrial and consumer stocks, with earnings downgrades from FedEx and Nike weighing on sentiment.
  • Volatility Spikes on $4.7 Trillion in Expiring Contracts: Markets experienced a volatile session on Friday due to “quadruple witching” — the simultaneous expiration of stock options, index futures, index options, and single-stock futures. According to estimates from Goldman Sachs, over $4.7 trillion in notional options exposure expired, intensifying intraday swings and trading volumes.
  • European Markets Decline on Travel Sector Weakness and Central Bank Watch: The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed 0.6% lower on Friday, with travel and leisure stocks down 1.6% following the closure of London’s Heathrow Airport due to a fire at a nearby substation. The CAC 40 fell 0.55%, the DAX dropped 0.47%, and the FTSE MIB slid more than 1% to 38,563. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 ended the week up 14.46 points, or 0.17%, at 8,646.79. Investors were also digesting monetary policy updates, as the Bank of England, Riksbank, and Swiss National Bank held rates steady, while the Bank of Russia kept its key rate at 21% amid high inflation.
  • Asian Markets Mixed as Hong Kong Drops Sharply, Japan’s Topix Rallies: Asian equities were mixed on Friday, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index plunging 2.19% to 23,689.72, weighed down by weakness in healthcare and consumer cyclical sectors. Mainland China’s CSI 300 slipped 1.52% to 3,914.7. Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged down 0.2% to 37,677.06, while the broader Topix rose 0.29% to 2,804.16, its seventh straight gain. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.23% to 2,643.13, while the Kosdaq declined 0.79% to 719.41. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.16% higher at 7,931.2. Japan’s headline inflation eased to 3.7% in February, down from January’s 4%.
  • 10-Year Treasury Yield Ticks Higher Amid Growth and Policy Uncertainty: The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose more than 1 basis point to 4.25% on Friday, reflecting ongoing uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy. The 2-year yield inched lower, slipping just under 1 basis point to 3.95%. The Fed left interest rates unchanged earlier in the week but reaffirmed its expectation for two rate cuts in 2025. Markets remain sensitive to further signals amid rising geopolitical and trade tensions.
  • Oil Prices Log Second Straight Weekly Gain on Iran Sanctions and OPEC+ Cuts: Oil futures extended gains on Friday, with Brent crude rising 16 cents, or 0.22%, to close at $72.16 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude added 21 cents, or 0.31%, to settle at $68.28. Brent posted a 2.24% weekly gain, while WTI rose 1.64%. The rally was fuelled by fresh US sanctions on Iran, including actions against a Chinese refiner, as well as a new OPEC+ agreement for seven members to cut production by up to 435,000 barrels per day through June 2026.

FX Today:

  • EUR/USD Pulls Back but Maintains Bullish Bias: EUR/USD finished the week at 1.0814, down 0.31% after retreating from a recent high near 1.0930. The pair has shown strength since early March, when it traded just above 1.0400, climbing above its 50-day SMA at 1.0526, 100-day SMA at 1.0521, and 200-day SMA at 1.0728. The current price action suggests the pair is consolidating above key support, with bulls needing a close above 1.0930 to extend the uptrend toward 1.1000. A drop below the 200-day SMA could signal fading momentum, with next support near 1.0600.
  • GBP/USD Pulls Back After Rejection at Psychological Level: GBP/USD ended the week at 1.2918, down 0.38% after failing to break through the 1.3000 psychological resistance. The pair had rallied from a February low of 1.2100, reclaiming the 50-day SMA at 1.2596, the 100-day SMA at 1.2624, and the 200-day SMA at 1.2798. Despite the recent dip, the pair remains in a broader uptrend as long as it holds above 1.2850. A sustained move above 1.3000 would open the door for a potential run toward 1.3150. However, failure to maintain support near the 200-day SMA could lead to a deeper retracement toward 1.2600.
  • USD/JPY Struggles Below Key Resistance Levels: The USD/JPY pair ended the week at 149.34, gaining 0.38% after rebounding from a recent low near 146.50 earlier in March. Despite the recovery, the pair continues to face strong overhead resistance, trading below both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at 151.93 and 153.10 respectively. Since peaking near 160.00 in December, USD/JPY has been trending lower, forming a bearish channel. The 200-day SMA near 152.00 also adds to the resistance cluster. Immediate support lies at the 148.00 region, with a breakdown potentially exposing the March low. Technicals suggest the pair needs to break and hold above 153.10 to reverse the broader downtrend.
  • AUD/USD Slips Further as Downtrend Persists: AUD/USD ended the week at 0.6273, falling 0.46% and continuing its broader downtrend after failing to hold above the 50-day SMA at 0.6286. The 100-day SMA at 0.6343 and 200-day SMA at 0.6518 remain above current levels, confirming the bearish structure. The pair has now printed three consecutive lower highs and lower lows, with immediate support seen at 0.6220 and further downside potential toward the February low near 0.6170. Resistance is now seen near 0.6350, and a break above that level would be needed to challenge the downward momentum.
  • Gold Retreats After Failing to Extend Breakout: Gold prices ended the week at $3,021.18, down 0.76% after reaching a high of $3,047.51 earlier in the week. Despite the pullback, the metal remains in a strong uptrend, having gained over 20% since late December when it traded near $2,500. Gold continues to hold above key support at the 50-day SMA at $2,867.15, with additional support at the 100-day SMA at $2,756.27 and the 200-day SMA at $2,632.71. A move back above $3,050 would signal renewed bullish momentum toward $3,100, while a break below $2,980 could open the door for a deeper correction. The broader trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the rising 50-day SMA.

Market Movers:

  • Lockheed Martin Drops as Boeing Wins Fighter Jet Contract: Shares of Lockheed Martin fell 5.8% after reports surfaced that President Donald Trump selected Boeing for a next-generation fighter jet contract. Boeing shares rose 3.1% following the decision, reversing earlier losses from the week.
  • Nike Tumbles After Warning on Quarterly Sales: Nike dropped 5.5%, among the biggest decliners in the Dow, after the company warned that current-quarter sales would fall short of expectations. The guidance overshadowed stronger-than-expected results for the prior quarter.
  • Micron Sinks Despite Beating the Estimates: Micron Technology dropped 8% after reporting fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.56 per share on $8.05 billion in revenue, both above expectations. The decline reflected investor concerns around future guidance.
  • FedEx Slumps After Cutting Profit and Revenue Forecasts: FedEx shares fell more than 6% after the company lowered its full-year profit and revenue outlook, citing ongoing weakness in the US industrial economy. Loop Capital downgraded the stock following the update.
  • Super Micro Computer Rallies on JPMorgan Upgrade: Super Micro surged 7.8% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to neutral from underweight. The bank cited momentum from upcoming Blackwell chip shipments as a key reason for the improved outlook.
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Jumps on FDA Drug Approval: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals jumped 11.8% after the FDA approved its injectable drug Amvuttra for the treatment of a rare and fatal heart condition. The approval drove the stock to multi-month highs.

As the trading week drew to a close, US equities ended on a cautious yet positive note, with the S&P 500 and Dow managing modest gains while the Nasdaq outperformed amid volatile “quadruple witching” flows and ongoing trade policy uncertainty. President Donald Trump’s comments about tariff “flexibility” helped lift sentiment late in the day, but concerns over earnings downgrades, slowing capital spending, and weakening industrial demand persisted. Meanwhile, FedEx and Nike issued warnings tied to the broader economic environment, and US Treasury yields edged higher as investors weighed the impact of potential rate cuts and rising inflation risks. Abroad, European markets fell on travel disruptions and cautious central bank outlooks, while Asia-Pacific indices saw mixed results, led lower by a sharp drop in Hong Kong. With tariff deadlines and policy decisions looming, investors remain firmly focused on macro headwinds and the path of monetary easing through the rest of 2025.