US stocks rebounded sharply on Friday, with major indices posting strong gains as investors took a breather from the week’s heavy losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 650 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw their best single-day performance of 2025. The rally was driven by a pause in tariff-related headlines, easing some of the uncertainty that had rattled markets over the past three weeks. However, despite the day’s gains, all three major indices ended the week in negative territory, marking the fourth consecutive week of losses for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Meanwhile, economic concerns persisted as consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level in months, fuelling expectations for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision.

Key Takeaways:

  • Dow Jumps Over 650 Points but Still Suffers: The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 674.62 points, or 1.65%, to close at 41,488.19 on Friday, recovering some of the steep losses seen earlier in the week. Despite the strong rebound, the Dow still posted a weekly decline of approximately 3.1%, marking its worst week since March 2023. 
  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq Log Best Day of 2025: The S&P 500 rallied 2.13% on Friday to close at 5,638.94, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.61% to end at 17,754.09. The rally marked the best single-day performance of 2025 for both indices, fuelled by a rebound in big tech stocks, including Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta Platforms. However, the sharp gains failed to prevent weekly losses, with the S&P 500 declining more than 2% and the Nasdaq extending its losing streak to four consecutive weeks. 
  • Consumer Sentiment Plummets as Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Households: The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped sharply in March to 57.9, well below the 63.2 expected by economists. The reading marked a significant decline from the previous month and reflected growing concerns over trade uncertainty and inflation. Consumers also reported rising inflation expectations, with the one-year outlook jumping to 4.9%, up from 4.3% in February. 
  • European Stocks Close Higher as German Lawmakers Move Toward Spending Boost: European markets closed higher on Friday, led by Germany’s DAX, which gained 420 points, or 1.86%, following reports that lawmakers had moved closer to agreeing on reforms to the country’s debt brake rule. The regional Stoxx 600 index climbed 1.14%, while France’s CAC 40 rose 90 points, or 1.13%. Italy’s FTSE MIB outperformed with a 1.73% gain, adding 656 points, while the FTSE 100 in the UK declined 47.55 points, or 0.55%, to close at 8,632.33. Meanwhile, The UK’s economy shrank by 0.1% month-on-month in January, surprising economists who had expected 0.1% growth. The decline was largely attributed to a contraction in the production sector, which fell 0.9% after rising 0.5% in December.
  • Asian Markets Rally as Chinese Stocks Hit Three-Month High: Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region ended higher on Friday, led by a surge in Chinese equities. The CSI 300 climbed 2.43% to close at 4,006.56, marking a three-month high as investor sentiment improved. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 2.12% to 23,959.98, with top-performing stocks including WuXi Biologics, which jumped 13.95%, along with BYD, Meituan, and Ping An Insurance, which gained 6.04%, 5.71%, and 5.59%, respectively. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.72% to end at 37,053.10, while the broader Topix index added 0.65% to 2,715.85. South Korea’s Kospi index slipped 0.28% to 2,566.36, though the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 1.59% to 734.26. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 ended the trading day up 0.52% at 7,789.70. While Asian markets largely shrugged off the latest trade developments, concerns over Trump’s tariff policies persisted, particularly after he threatened a 200% tariff on all alcoholic products from the European Union in response to the bloc’s 50% tariff on whiskey.
  • US Treasury Yields Rise as Inflation Concerns Persist: US Treasury yields climbed on Friday as investors digested weaker consumer sentiment data and rising inflation expectations. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 4.318%, while the 2-year yield advanced 7 basis points to 4.023%. The University of Michigan survey revealed that inflation expectations for the next year surged to 4.9%, up from 4.3% in February.
  • Oil Prices End the Week Little Changed as Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Continue: Oil prices rebounded by 1% on Friday, with Brent crude settling 70 cents higher at $70.58 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gaining 63 cents to close at $67.18 per barrel. The slight gains helped oil markets finish the week relatively unchanged, with Brent closing near last Friday’s level of $70.36 and WTI at $67.04. 

FX Today:

  • EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0880 but Faces Resistance: The EUR/USD pair ended the session at 1.0882, rising 0.30% as it attempted to sustain recent gains. The pair reached a high of 1.0912 before pulling back, while support held firm at 1.0830. Despite the recent advance, the euro continues to struggle near the key 1.0900 resistance level. Technical indicators remain supportive, with the 50-day SMA at 1.0469 and the 100-day SMA at 1.0518 acting as strong support zones. However, the 200-day SMA at 1.0726 suggests that longer-term trend confirmation is still needed. If EUR/USD pushes above 1.0950, it could test the psychological 1.1000 level, but failure to hold current levels could lead to a retreat toward 1.0850 and possibly 1.0800.
  • GBP/USD Slides as UK Economic Worries Grow: The British pound lost momentum on Friday, with GBP/USD slipping 0.15% to close at 1.2932 as the UK GDP shrunk by 0.1%. The pair fluctuated between a low of 1.2910 and a session high of 1.2959 but struggled to maintain upside momentum. Despite the pullback, GBP/USD remains above its 50-day SMA at 1.2535 and the 100-day SMA at 1.2624, supporting a broader bullish trend. The 200-day SMA at 1.2794 acts as a key pivot point, while immediate resistance at 1.2950 remains a hurdle for further gains. A move above 1.3000 could extend the rally, but if selling pressure persists, the pair could retreat toward 1.2900, with further downside risk toward 1.2850.
  • USD/JPY Climbs as Buyers Step In: The USD/JPY pair gained 0.55% on Friday, closing at 148.61 as buyers defended key support levels. The pair traded within a range of 147.68 to 149.01, staying below key moving averages that continue to weigh on sentiment. The 50-day SMA at 152.82 and the 100-day SMA at 153.28 suggest a longer-term bearish outlook, with the 200-day SMA at 151.98 acting as a key resistance point. If USD/JPY clears 149.00, further gains toward 150.50 could follow, but failure to hold 147.50 may trigger a deeper decline toward 146.50.
  • AUD/USD Struggles Near Resistance: The Australian dollar ended the session at 0.6326, rising 0.68% as the pair attempted to push higher. The session saw a low of 0.6277 and a high of 0.6327, but AUD/USD remains capped by key resistance levels. The 50-day SMA at 0.6273 provides a support base, while the 100-day SMA at 0.6356 serves as an upper barrier. Price action suggests the pair is in a consolidation phase, with multiple failed attempts to break higher. If AUD/USD can hold above 0.6300, further upside toward 0.6350 is possible. However, failure to sustain gains could see a drop toward 0.6270, with a break below this level opening the door to 0.6200.
  • Gold Retreats After Hitting Record High Above $3,000: Gold prices pulled back on Friday after briefly surging past the $3,000 mark for the first time in history. The precious metal closed at $2,988.69, up 1.87% on the session, after reaching an all-time high of $3,004. The rally was fuelled by uncertainty surrounding US trade policies, driving safe-haven demand. However, resistance near the $3,020 level triggered profit-taking, leading to a slight retreat. Gold remains well above key moving averages, with the 50-day SMA at $2,823.36, the 100-day SMA at $2,740.23, and the 200-day SMA at $2,611.66. Immediate support lies at $2,950, followed by $2,900 if further selling pressure emerges. If gold sustains momentum above $3,000, the next target is $3,050, but a failure to hold current levels could lead to a deeper pullback.

Market Movers:

  • Rubrik Surges on Strong Earnings Beat: Shares of data management company Rubrik skyrocketed 25% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue of $258 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $233 million. The company posted a narrower-than-expected loss of $0.18 per share, beating forecasts of a $0.39 per share loss.
  • Ulta Beauty Jumps Despite Weak Guidance: Ulta Beauty surged 12.3% after reporting fourth-quarter earnings of $8.46 per share, exceeding the $7.12 per share consensus estimate. Revenue also came in strong at $3.49 billion, though full-year guidance disappointed investors.
  • DocuSign Soars on AI-Powered Growth: DocuSign rallied 18% after the e-signature company reported top- and bottom-line beats, driven by the launch of its AI-enabled content. The company cited strong partnerships with Microsoft and Google as key growth drivers.
  • Semtech Rallies on Robust Earnings and Outlook: Semiconductor stock Semtech climbed 18.5% following a strong fourth-quarter report, posting adjusted earnings of $0.40 per share versus expectations of $0.32. Revenue of $251 million also exceeded estimates of $249 million.
  • Nvidia Gains as It Ends Three-Week Losing Streak: Nvidia shares rose 4% on Friday, helping the AI-driven tech giant snap a three-week losing streak. The stock remains down more than 10% since the start of 2025 but gained over 6% this week.

Stocks ended the week on a volatile note, with Friday’s relief rally helping to recover some losses but failing to prevent the worst weekly decline for the Dow since March 2023. Investors remained cautious amid weak consumer sentiment and rising inflation expectations, while European and Asian markets posted gains despite lingering trade uncertainties. Oil ended the week little changed, and gold briefly topped $3,000 before pulling back. With the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting approaching, traders remain focused on further developments in US trade policy and market direction.